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PLOS Climate

Centuries of global heating from Carbon Majors: Dependence on future emissions pathways

Dargan M. W. Frierson, Lauren A. Henrie

Publisher abstract excerptA range of recent studies have developed methods and data to attribute past and present global temperature change to individual emitters. We perform simulations that attribute the amount of global warming due to corporations, governments and other entities into the future. We utilize the Finite Ampl…

Abstract & author credits for Centuries of global heating from Carbon Majors: Dependence on future emissions pathways

Authors: Dargan M. W. Frierson, Lauren A. Henrie

A range of recent studies have developed methods and data to attribute past and present global temperature change to individual emitters. We perform simulations that attribute the amount of global warming due to corporations, governments and other entities into the future. We utilize the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model run until 2500, and the Carbon Majors dataset, a database with the emissions history associated with the top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers. We perform counterfactual experiments to calculate the warming attributable to the emissions associated with these entities, using several different future emissions scenarios. The future atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) anomaly attributable to a company’s past emissions is smaller with less ensemble spread in a lower emissions future than it is in a high emissions future. This is due to smaller carbon cycle feedbacks with lower emissions. However, the temperature change from past emissions is larger in a lower emissions future, even with the smaller change in CO2. This is due primarily to the logarithmic sensitivity of CO2 radiative forcing to concentration. Methane concentration post-2080 experiences a negative anomaly, due to a decrease in methane lifetime from elevated temperature, which is a small negative feedback. For any future emissions scenario, the historical emissions from oil, gas, coal, and cement producers affect many aspects of the climate system, including CO2 in the atmosphere and other parts of the carbon cycle, methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapor. The total radiative forcing induced by these elements stays positive throughout all simulations, which in turn causes positive temperature perturbations. Thus in addition to the damages that have already occurred, we expect the Carbon Majors to be responsible for calculable climate damages for many centuries into the future.

Source: PLOS Climate. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001036. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Climate

A systematic review of biomass and carbon stock estimation approaches: Methods, uncertainties, and emerging opportunities

Annissa Muhammed Ahmedin

Publisher abstract excerptAccurate quantification of forest biomass and carbon stocks is essential for understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics, climate change mitigation, and improving forest monitoring and greenhouse gas reporting. However, biomass estimation approaches vary considerably in accuracy, scalability, cost, an…

Abstract & author credits for A systematic review of biomass and carbon stock estimation approaches: Methods, uncertainties, and emerging opportunities

Authors: Annissa Muhammed Ahmedin

Accurate quantification of forest biomass and carbon stocks is essential for understanding terrestrial carbon dynamics, climate change mitigation, and improving forest monitoring and greenhouse gas reporting. However, biomass estimation approaches vary considerably in accuracy, scalability, cost, and uncertainty, creating challenges for selecting appropriate methods across ecosystems and spatial scales. This systematic review synthesizes recent advances in forest biomass and carbon stock estimation and evaluates the strengths, limitations, and future directions of major methodological approaches. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses framework, 147 peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2025 were reviewed. The studies encompassed field-based measurements, allometric modelling, remote sensing, machine learning, carbon stock models, and integrated multi-source frameworks. The evidence reveals a clear transition from conventional field inventories toward multi-source approaches that integrate ground observations with optical, radar, and Light Detection and Ranging data, advanced modelling, and artificial intelligence. Field measurements and locally calibrated allometric equations remain indispensable for model development and validation, while remote sensing and machine learning enhance spatial coverage and predictive capability. However, estimation accuracy remains strongly influenced by vegetation structure, environmental conditions, data quality, and model transferability. The review demonstrates that no single approach is universally optimal across all ecosystem conditions. Reliable biomass and carbon stock assessments require integrated frameworks that balance accuracy, scalability, cost, and uncertainty through the complementary use of field observations, remote sensing, and advanced modelling techniques. Future research should prioritize expanding biomass reference datasets in underrepresented regions, strengthening model validation and uncertainty quantification, and developing transparent, ecosystem-specific estimation frameworks. Such advances will improve forest carbon accounting, climate mitigation, and evidence-based forest management.

Source: PLOS Climate. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000935. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Water

Impact of weather and season on stored water contamination and infant diarrhea in climate-vulnerable, urban Mozambique

Rebecca S. Kann, Sydney Hubbard, Jedidiah Snyder, Sandy McGunegill, Bacelar Muneme, João Luis Manuel et al.

Publisher abstract excerptDiarrhea remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality for children under five, despite reductions in its global burden in recent decades. However, climate change, and its associated meteorological conditions - heavy rainfall, temperature, flooding - has the potential to impede or reverse progr…

Abstract & author credits for Impact of weather and season on stored water contamination and infant diarrhea in climate-vulnerable, urban Mozambique

Authors: Rebecca S. Kann, Sydney Hubbard, Jedidiah Snyder, Sandy McGunegill, Bacelar Muneme, João Luis Manuel, Lance A. Waller, Rassul Nalá, Karen Levy, Matthew C. Freeman, the PAASIM Study Authorship Consortium

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality for children under five, despite reductions in its global burden in recent decades. However, climate change, and its associated meteorological conditions - heavy rainfall, temperature, flooding - has the potential to impede or reverse progress, particularly in low-income, climate-vulnerable communities. Better characterization of the impact of weather and season on drinking water quality and child health will allow us to capture the anticipated health burden associated with climate change. We characterized the associations of weather and season on infant diarrhea and household stored water quality in Beira, Mozambique. We collected data from mother-child dyads in the third trimester of pregnancy and when the infant was 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months old. Using modified Poisson regression mixed effects models, we evaluated associations between weather (i.e., season, heavy rainfall events, ambient temperature, and flooding) and (1) household stored water quality and (2) infant diarrhea. Rainy season (aPR: 1.49; 95% CI: [1.34, 1.67]) was associated with a higher prevalence of stored water contamination, and higher temperatures were associated with a higher prevalence of stored water contamination during the dry season only (aPR: 1.14; 95% CI: [1.03, 1.27]). Source water contamination was associated with a higher prevalence of stored water contamination during both rainy (aPR: 1.32; 95% CI: [1.11, 1.56]) and dry seasons (aPR: 1.56; 95% CI: [1.22, 2.00]). Rainy season (aPR: 1.18; 95% CI: [1.01, 1.38]) was associated with a higher prevalence of infant diarrhea, as was higher temperatures, though only during the dry season (aPR: 1.19; 95% CI: [1.05, 1.35]). This study highlights the importance of addressing household water contamination for reducing the burden of diarrheal disease as well as the importance of understanding the seasonal and weather-dependent variation in both water contamination and infant diarrhea.

Source: PLOS Water. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000599. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation

“It is a sham process with participation.” Ten forms of citizen participation for sustainable development in the Norwegian Arctic

Roxana Roos

Publisher abstract excerptAchieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires action at all levels, from local to global, through synergy among all societal actors. Norway shares responsibility for SDG-based sustainable development with local authorities (municipalities and counties). The Planning and Building Act’s…

Abstract & author credits for “It is a sham process with participation.” Ten forms of citizen participation for sustainable development in the Norwegian Arctic

Authors: Roxana Roos

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires action at all levels, from local to global, through synergy among all societal actors. Norway shares responsibility for SDG-based sustainable development with local authorities (municipalities and counties). The Planning and Building Act’s purpose clause stipulates that it shall promote sustainable development for the benefit of individuals, society and future generations. Municipal responsibility for sustainable development, when incorporated into planning processes, is complex and requires the inclusion of diverse knowledge holders. Focusing on spatial planning as an instrument for sustainable transformation, this study examined citizen participation practices at the municipal level in the Norwegian Arctic. I conducted semi-structured interviews with 75 residents with very diverse backgrounds. Using inductive thematic analysis, I coded forms of citizen participation, their characteristics, and their links with sustainability and transformation. I further analyzed the forms using Arnstein’s ladder of citizen participation and Fung’s cube of democracy. I identified 10 forms of citizen participation in planning processes. Only two of these give citizens the opportunity to influence decisions, but only on matters less relevant to sustainability. A link to sustainability and transformation is prominent in all forms. Citizens emphasize the importance of focusing on climate adaptation, nature conservation, and local values. Local authorities see green industry, power plants, and the economy as fundamental. Lay citizens, some politicians, and some planners believe these are destructive to local sustainability values, which are strongly linked to the importance of nature in people's lives. Overall, the current practice of participation in planning processes in my sample of municipalities in the Norwegian Arctic lacks genuine cooperation, fails to incorporate local knowledge, and hardly leads to citizens’ influence. Citizens’ priorities thus don’t affect the decisions that are made. This hinders local engagement in planning processes, utilization of local knowledge, and achievement of the SDGs.

Source: PLOS Sustainability and Transformation. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pstr.0000193. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Sustainability and Transformation

From waste to resource: The untapped value of the separate collection of single-use laboratory plastics to enable recycling

Bianca R. Schell, Ann-Katrin Emmerich, Arooba Nazneen, Marc Widenmeyer, Anke Weidenkaff, Nico Bruns

Publisher abstract excerptIn the face of the sustainability crisis, scientific laboratories, as resource-intensive units, must conduct research more sustainably. They are estimated to produce 5.5 million tonnes of plastic waste per year. Clearly, there is a need for greater circularity: Reduce-and-reuse frameworks for labora…

Abstract & author credits for From waste to resource: The untapped value of the separate collection of single-use laboratory plastics to enable recycling

Authors: Bianca R. Schell, Ann-Katrin Emmerich, Arooba Nazneen, Marc Widenmeyer, Anke Weidenkaff, Nico Bruns

In the face of the sustainability crisis, scientific laboratories, as resource-intensive units, must conduct research more sustainably. They are estimated to produce 5.5 million tonnes of plastic waste per year. Clearly, there is a need for greater circularity: Reduce-and-reuse frameworks for laboratory plastics exist to some extent, but none for recycling of disposed single-use articles. Biologically contaminated plastics from life science labs are disinfected by autoclaving after use, transforming them into conventional residual waste that is mostly incinerated, resulting in high CO2 eq. emissions. However, this waste stream consists of high-quality polymers, for which (thermo-)mechanical recycling is technically possible. Therefore, we performed a waste assessment of lab plastics and found in a one-week assessment that the majority of the residual waste consisted of recyclable plastics. However, autoclaving causes these mixed fractions to clump together. Thus, we created a separate collection scheme for the two most abundant plastic types, polystyrene and polypropylene, enabling us to retrieve high-quality monostream polymer fractions for (thermo-)mechanical recycling. This study is the first to present a transferable blueprint with detailed instructions for other institutions on how to implement the separate collection scheme. We obtained user feedback on the feasibility and demonstrated 85% user acceptance. Further, this study provides the first quantitative assessment of emission-saving potential associated with substituting incineration with (thermo-)mechanical recycling for laboratory single-use plastics. For two end-of-life scenarios – an institution-specific scenario at the University of Konstanz (waste incinerated in Weinfelden, Switzerland) and a national average (Germany) scenario – we calculated the average annual emission-saving potentials for the extrapolated amount of arising waste to be up to 10.6 t CO2 eq. and 7.2 t CO2 eq., respectively. Therefore, a separate collection of lab plastic waste offers an easy-to-implement measure to reduce incinerated plastic waste, thereby lowering emissions and increasing the sustainability of laboratory research.

Source: PLOS Sustainability and Transformation. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pstr.0000225. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Mental Health

Effectiveness of integrated tuberculosis and depression treatment led by non-specialist health workers versus standard care among persons with tuberculosis in a low-resource setting: A quasi-experimental non-randomized controlled trial

Ngozi Murphy-Okpala, Charles Nwafor, Chinwe Eze, Martin Njoku, Okechukwu Ezeakile, Anthony Meka et al.

Publisher abstract excerptThis study determined the effectiveness of integrated TB and depression care compared to standard TB care in reducing depressive symptoms over time in persons treated for TB. This was a quasi-experimental, non-randomized controlled trial involving all TB cases with significant depressive symptoms (P…

Abstract & author credits for Effectiveness of integrated tuberculosis and depression treatment led by non-specialist health workers versus standard care among persons with tuberculosis in a low-resource setting: A quasi-experimental non-randomized controlled trial

Authors: Ngozi Murphy-Okpala, Charles Nwafor, Chinwe Eze, Martin Njoku, Okechukwu Ezeakile, Anthony Meka, Ngozi Ekeke, Francis Iyama, Daniel Egbule, Chukwuma Anyaike, Obioma Chijioke-Akaniro, Joseph Chukwu, Beatrice Kirubi, Jacob Creswell, Justus Uchenna Onu

This study determined the effectiveness of integrated TB and depression care compared to standard TB care in reducing depressive symptoms over time in persons treated for TB. This was a quasi-experimental, non-randomized controlled trial involving all TB cases with significant depressive symptoms (PHQ score ≥ 5) in ten already existing sites (i.e., eight intervention sites and two control sites) in Nigeria. At the intervention sites, non-specialist health workers (NSHWs) delivered treatment for both TB and depression while the NSHWs in the control sites delivered TB treatment and then referred patients with depression to a specialist in a different setting for treatment. Changes in depression symptom scores were measured at baseline, 2nd, 8th and 24th weeks using Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Mixed-ANOVA design was used to determine changes in PHQ-9 scores between-subjects and within-subjects across intervals of follow-up using both the per protocol and intent-to-treat analyses while controlling for covariates such as age, social support, sex, education. There were no significant differences in the PHQ-scores between the two groups (F = 0.95, p = 0.32). In addition, across the intervals of follow-up, PHQ-scores (i.e., depressive symptom scores) decreased significantly with time in both the intervention and control arms (p < 0.001). Furthermore, the interaction between the study arms and time was not significant (F = 0.66, p = 0.57), indicating that the groups were changing over time in a similar way. Participants with marked decrease in depressive symptoms completed their TB treatment and achieved cure when compared to the higher scores seen in those who dropped out or died or were transferred (F = 25.78, p < 0.001). The findings indicated that TB and depression treatment delivered by NSHWs significantly reduced depressive symptoms across intervals of follow-up. In addition, relief from depressive symptoms was significantly associated with completing TB treatment and achieving cure. Clinical Trial Number: PACTR202501828312848.

Source: PLOS Mental Health. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmen.0000636. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Climate

Turning points in climate change adaptation: Storytelling and co-producing visions and pathways for creating well-adapted places

Emma L. Yule, Joana Avi-Lorie, Pamela Candea, James Porter, Francesca Vantaggiato

Publisher abstract excerptClear adaptation outcomes are essential for driving climate action and assessing progress. However, developing a shared vision of desirable adaptation outcomes and the steps to achieve them requires a shared understanding of what constitutes a well-adapted place and what resources are needed to enab…

Abstract & author credits for Turning points in climate change adaptation: Storytelling and co-producing visions and pathways for creating well-adapted places

Authors: Emma L. Yule, Joana Avi-Lorie, Pamela Candea, James Porter, Francesca Vantaggiato

Clear adaptation outcomes are essential for driving climate action and assessing progress. However, developing a shared vision of desirable adaptation outcomes and the steps to achieve them requires a shared understanding of what constitutes a well-adapted place and what resources are needed to enable communities to create and implement such visions. The third Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) has “communities creating climate resilient places” as a key outcome. Our research draws upon a collaborative workshop that used storytelling techniques to co-produce adaptation visions: developing a shared narrative and identifying ‘turning points’ to put it into practice. Participants included community groups, public sector, and government officials. Key turning points included shifts in governance structures toward local communities inclusion in developing adaptation visions, consistent knowledge-sharing across scales via dedicated platforms/procedures, and enhanced communication and engagement around adaptation narratives at the local level. Unless these measures are implemented, communities will struggle to create the climate-resilient places envisioned in SNAP3. Our findings indicate that local adaptation targets are perceived as potentially useful drivers of adaptation action, but with limitations to their effectiveness: i.e., adaptation targets risk becoming siloed and failing to integrate broader resilience or community priorities. Our research highlights the positive and negative narratives around local adaptation targets, underscoring the need for continuous monitoring and a cautious, place-based approach to their implementation.

Source: PLOS Climate. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001056. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Climate

Climate action disclosure among companies: Implications for achieving global efforts to limit average global temperature rise to below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels

Ntule Shimwela, Noah M. Pauline, Catherine A. Masao

Publisher abstract excerptClimate action disclosure among companies has gained significant attention in today’s competitive business arena in ensuring business entities effectively and appropriately reduce their greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. However, there are inadequate studies that have investigated the extent of corpor…

Abstract & author credits for Climate action disclosure among companies: Implications for achieving global efforts to limit average global temperature rise to below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels

Authors: Ntule Shimwela, Noah M. Pauline, Catherine A. Masao

Climate action disclosure among companies has gained significant attention in today’s competitive business arena in ensuring business entities effectively and appropriately reduce their greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions. However, there are inadequate studies that have investigated the extent of corporate climate action disclosure and implications of legal frameworks and corporate attributes in achieving Net Zero Emissions (NZE) targets. To bridge this gap, this study intended to analyse the extent of climate action disclosure among Tanzanian listed companies. Data collection was conducted through document review of 78 sustainability reports, annual reports, and integrated reports published between 2022 and 2024. Further, interviews were conducted with six relevant experts from the listed private corporations and government regulatory authorities. Based on the metrics and targets recommended by the Task on Climate–related Financial Disclosure (TCFD), the climate change disclosure index was developed and used to analyse the extent of climate action disclosure. The distribution of the total mean content score was found to be 18.9%, indicating that the overall extent of climate action disclosure was low. The pattern of distribution was also low across TCFD areas. The low extent of climate action disclosure was attributed to inadequate implementation of relevant frameworks, lack of baseline data and inadequate capacity of companies and experts to perform scenario analysis and define clear climate change Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Therefore, the findings pose important implications for governments, policymakers, and companies to strengthen climate action disclosure.

Source: PLOS Climate. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000951. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Mental Health

Patterns and determinants of formal healthcare utilisation among individuals with and without proxy-identified mental health need in Tanzania: A cross-sectional analysis of the National Panel Survey

Gallen Mlenge, Odass Bilame, Lutengano Mwinuka

Publisher abstract excerptFormal healthcare utilisation remains persistently low across sub-Saharan Africa, yet utilisation patterns among individuals with mental health needs are poorly understood in low- and middle-income country contexts. Using data from the fifth wave of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (2020/21), this…

Abstract & author credits for Patterns and determinants of formal healthcare utilisation among individuals with and without proxy-identified mental health need in Tanzania: A cross-sectional analysis of the National Panel Survey

Authors: Gallen Mlenge, Odass Bilame, Lutengano Mwinuka

Formal healthcare utilisation remains persistently low across sub-Saharan Africa, yet utilisation patterns among individuals with mental health needs are poorly understood in low- and middle-income country contexts. Using data from the fifth wave of the Tanzania National Panel Survey (2020/21), this study examined patterns and determinants of formal healthcare utilisation among individuals aged 15 years and above with and without proxy-identified mental health need. A nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 11,891 individuals with non-missing outcome data was analysed. Proxy-identified mental health need was determined using the Washington Group Short Set item on difficulty remembering or concentrating at the severe threshold, a proxy associated with common mental disorders. The outcome was any formal provider visit in the four weeks prior to the interview, regardless of reason. Survey-weighted logistic regression estimated odds ratios and predicted probabilities within the Andersen Behavioural Model. Missing outcome data affected 505 individuals in a Missing Not At Random pattern; extreme bounds sensitivity analysis assessed implications for subgroup estimates. Overall weighted formal healthcare utilisation was 19.2%. Proxy-identified mental health need was observed in 54 individuals (weighted prevalence 0.45%). Female sex, older age (55 and above), and Southern Highlands zone residence were independently associated with higher utilisation. Household wealth showed a strong dose-response gradient: individuals in the richest quintile had 2.71 times higher adjusted odds than those in the poorest. Proxy-identified mental health need was not significantly associated with utilisation (adjusted odds ratio 1.27; 95% confidence interval: 0.53–3.04; p = 0.588). Extreme bounds analysis indicated that true utilisation could range from 2.0% to 92.7%, confirming subgroup findings are exploratory. Formal healthcare utilisation in Tanzania is strongly patterned by household wealth, sex, age, and geographic zone. Addressing wealth-related barriers and strengthening service availability in lower-utilisation zones should be the priorities for advancing equitable healthcare utilisation in Tanzania.

Source: PLOS Mental Health. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmen.0000644. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Water

Willingness-to-pay for container-based sanitation and implications for targeted subsidy design in urban Haiti

Maya Lubeck-Schricker, Valerie Bauza, Winnie Felix-Jean, Frederick G.B. Goddard, Miselie Fanor Pierre, Bridj Ozeris et al.

Publisher abstract excerptEkoLakay container-based sanitation (CBS) with weekly waste collection and treatment is one of the only household-level safely managed sanitation options in northern Haiti. Despite a low monthly fee of 350 HTG (less than 3 USD), some households still struggle to pay for the service, indicating that…

Abstract & author credits for Willingness-to-pay for container-based sanitation and implications for targeted subsidy design in urban Haiti

Authors: Maya Lubeck-Schricker, Valerie Bauza, Winnie Felix-Jean, Frederick G.B. Goddard, Miselie Fanor Pierre, Bridj Ozeris, Miles Schelling, Sasha Kramer

EkoLakay container-based sanitation (CBS) with weekly waste collection and treatment is one of the only household-level safely managed sanitation options in northern Haiti. Despite a low monthly fee of 350 HTG (less than 3 USD), some households still struggle to pay for the service, indicating that targeted subsidies could expand coverage to the poorest and most vulnerable households. To inform targeted subsidy design, we conducted surveys with 603 households in four neighborhoods of Cap Haitien to investigate willingness to pay (WTP) for EkoLakay CBS services and to determine the socio-economic, behavioral, and contextual factors associated with WTP. We used contingent valuation to measure stated WTP and multivariate regression to assess factors associated with WTP. We also conducted focus group discussions with household members and community leaders to further explore the findings. In the overall survey population, 60% reported a willingness to pay 350 HTG per month for EkoLakay service (the current fee), 77% were willing to pay 250 HTG, and 85% were willing to pay 150 HTG. Household wealth, sanitation privacy, and satisfaction with the current sanitation facility were associated with WTP in multivariate regression analysis. However, a household’s current ownership of a private toilet was not associated with WTP. Focus group participants identified several reasons why households that already owned private toilets may be willing to pay for the EkoLakay CBS service. These included pit emptying costs, smell, and pest concerns of pit latrines, the desire for multiple toilets within the home, and the benefits of CBS in flood-prone areas. Our results suggest that an additional subsidy that reduces the price to 150–200 HTG could achieve up to 80% CBS coverage in the study area. These results may inform other basic service providers and government partners to better understand willingness to pay for basic service provision in the region.

Source: PLOS Water. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000618. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

PLOS Water

Spatial structure in urban water consumption: A Bayesian space-time analysis of Bogotá (2019–2024)

Danna Lesley Cruz-Reyes, Daniel Leonardo Ramírez Orozco

Publisher abstract excerptIn this study, we apply fully Bayesian spatio-temporal models to locality-level water consumption in Bogotá, Colombia, from 2019 through 2024. An additive model identifies spatial differences after adjusting for common temporal dynamics and city-wide climatic and socioeconomic time series. Because t…

Abstract & author credits for Spatial structure in urban water consumption: A Bayesian space-time analysis of Bogotá (2019–2024)

Authors: Danna Lesley Cruz-Reyes, Daniel Leonardo Ramírez Orozco

In this study, we apply fully Bayesian spatio-temporal models to locality-level water consumption in Bogotá, Colombia, from 2019 through 2024. An additive model identifies spatial differences after adjusting for common temporal dynamics and city-wide climatic and socioeconomic time series. Because these covariates are shared across all localities, they provide temporal adjustment but cannot explain between-locality spatial variation. A formal sensitivity analysis adding a structured space–time interaction substantially improves model fit (WAIC: 604.0 versus 2502.7; DIC: 333.9 versus 2500.5), showing that locality deviations are not adequately represented as constant throughout the study period. Student-t likelihoods indicate heavy residual tails (posterior mean degrees of freedom: 3.02 in the additive model and 2.60 in the interaction model), but the Gaussian interaction model retains substantially better information criteria than its Student-t counterpart. The principal spatial main effects remain highly correlated across likelihoods (r = 0.975). The results therefore support spatially heterogeneous temporal dynamics and show that the main spatial ordering is robust to heavy-tailed errors.

Source: PLOS Water. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pwat.0000512. Abstract from the publisher’s feed; HTML formatting and repeated author line removed.

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